Brazil’s Public Accounts Post R$17.5 Billion September Deficit as Debt Climbs to 78.1% of GDP

Overview

• Central bank data show a consolidated primary deficit of R$17.5 billion in September, with the federal government negative R$14.9 billion, states and municipalities negative R$3.5 billion, and state-owned firms posting a R$1.0 billion surplus.
• Including interest, the nominal result showed a R$102.2 billion deficit in September, taking the 12‑month nominal shortfall to about R$1.02 trillion, as interest expenses reached R$84.7 billion in the month.
• Gross public debt rose to 78.1% of GDP in September, up from 77.5% in August, with analysts noting it is the highest level since late 2021.
• Treasury figures report a Government Central primary deficit of R$14.5 billion in September and R$100.4 billion year to date, with the year’s gap driven by a roughly R$286.3 billion Previdência shortfall partly offset by a R$185.9 billion surplus from the Treasury and the Central Bank.
• September’s deterioration reflected expenses rising 5.7% in real terms versus a 0.6% revenue gain, led by discretionary outlays such as health (about R$4.1 billion) and special transfers, while the Treasury maintains the annual path can meet the 2025 fiscal rule using permitted exclusions and a narrow tolerance, with a Chamber-approved package potentially aiding once finalized.