Brazil’s Preliminary Inflation Rises 0.70% in September

Overview

• The IBGE’s IPCA‑15 rose 0.70% in September, a figure released on Friday that pushed the 12‑month rate to 4.47% and was the largest September increase since 2021.
• The outcome exceeded market medians of about 0.52–0.55% and topped the range of analyst forecasts surveyed by Valor Data.
• Price pressures were broad across the consumption basket with housing flipping from −1.41% to +2.07%, energy costs rising after a temporary Itaipu discount ended, and food-group deflation losing strength.
• Consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month in September to 84.2 points as measured by FGV, a drop driven by weaker expectations even as some present‑situation measures edged up and lower‑income confidence showed signs of recovery linked to social benefit adjustments.
• Construction sentiment also weakened with FGV’s index down to 90.5 as demand expectations, contract backlog and capacity use declined, a pattern that could weigh on activity and household incomes if price pressures persist.