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Brazil’s Jobless Rate Holds at Record Low as Payrolls Add 213,002 Positions

Twin labor reports point to resilience with early signs of slower hiring, leading markets to curb expectations for near‑term rate cuts.

Overview

  • Formal employment rose by a net 213,002 in September, beating forecasts and taking the stock of registered jobs to about 48.9 million, with 1.716 million created year to date.
  • All five major sectors posted gains, led by services (~106,606) and industry (~43,095), and all 27 states were positive, with São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco at the top.
  • IBGE’s survey put unemployment at 5.6% in the quarter to September, the series low, with 6.045 million people unemployed, the smallest contingent on record.
  • Worker incomes hit records, with average real earnings at R$ 3,507 and labor underutilization down to 13.9%, while the average hiring wage in Caged was R$ 2,286 with a slight month‑on‑month dip.
  • Year‑on‑year hiring slowed 15.5% versus September 2024, and equities rallied as the Ibovespa neared 150,000 points, while futures rates eased and bets on an early Selic cut receded.