Brazil’s Industrial Output Falls 0.4% in September as Momentum Cools

Overview

• IBGE reports a 0.4% month‑on‑month decline in September, while output rose 2% from a year earlier.
• Pharmaceuticals dropped 9.7%, extractive industries fell 1.6%, and motor vehicles slid 3.5%, as food, tobacco, and wood products expanded.
• The sector remains 2.3% above its pre‑pandemic level yet 14.8% below the 2011 peak, with August revised to a 0.7% gain.
• IBGE’s André Macedo links weaker activity to the 15% Selic rate, noting postponed corporate investment and softer household demand.
• External signals are mixed as US PMIs diverge—ISM at 48.7 versus S&P Global at 52.5—and firms cite US tariff measures as a headwind that IBGE cannot quantify.