Brazil’s IBC‑Br Rises 0.7% in November, Tilting Markets Away From a January Selic Cut

Overview

• The IBC‑Br climbed 0.7% on the month and retail sales rose 1% in November, both beating forecasts and signaling a firmer backdrop late in 2025.
• Interest‑rate futures advanced across the curve as traders raised the implied probability of no change at the January Copom meeting to roughly 78%, with a larger pre‑fixed Treasury auction adding pressure on long maturities.
• The Ibovespa set a nominal record close at 165,568 points on Thursday after touching 166,070 intraday, then traded flat to lower on Friday during options expiration.
• The dollar proved volatile, topping R$5.40 intraday on Thursday before retreating to R$5.368 at the close, helped by a calmer external tone.
• The central bank ordered the extrajudicial liquidation of CBSF (formerly Reag), while Federal Police reports cited strong indications of resource diversion and potential systemic risk in the Banco Master case.