Brazil’s Growth Nearly Stalls With Q3 GDP Up 0.1%

Overview

• Official IBGE data show GDP rose 0.1% quarter over quarter in Q3 2025, with industry up 0.8%, agribusiness up 0.4% and services essentially flat at 0.1%.
• Household consumption advanced only 0.1% as the Finance Ministry’s SPE linked the slowdown to a restrictive 15% Selic that is cooling credit and demand.
• IBGE revisions lifted Q1 2025 growth to 1.5%, trimmed Q2 to 0.3% and turned Q4 2024 to a slight contraction, prompting the SPE to say the deceleration is more pronounced and cutting the carry‑over for 2026; the 2025 carry now stands at 2.2%.
• Investment rose 0.9% on the quarter but the investment rate remained low at 17.3% of GDP, while exports climbed 3.3% and imports edged up 0.3%.
• The central bank has signaled keeping the Selic at 15% for a prolonged period, and analysts see the first cuts early next year as the tariff shock from the U.S. adds uncertainty even as exceptions helped keep overall exports broadly stable.