Brazil’s Economy Barely Grows in Q3 as High Rates Sap Demand

Overview

• IBGE reported GDP up 0.1% quarter on quarter in Q3 2025, 1.8% year on year, with the four‑quarter rate at 2.7% after revisions lifted Q1 to 1.5% and trimmed Q2 to 0.3%.
• Household consumption advanced only 0.1% and services were nearly flat, reflecting the drag from a 15% Selic that has pushed up borrowing costs.
• Industry rose 0.8% on gains in extractive activity (+1.7%) and construction (+1.3%), agriculture grew 0.4%, and investment increased 0.9%.
• Exports climbed 3.3% as higher pre‑salt oil and mineral output and redirected sales to China, Europe and Asia offset U.S. tariff headwinds; imports edged up 0.3%.
• The Finance Ministry’s SPE kept a roughly 2.2% carry for 2025, while business groups flagged weak investment and a cooling industrial trend as markets price rate cuts in early 2026.