Overview

• Relator Paulinho da Força delayed presenting his substitute and now plans to file the proposal in the first week of October.
• Draft language under discussion would treat connected offenses as a single count and lower statutory ranges, with talk of excluding aggravating factors in this exceptional case.
• Estimates reported by the press suggest Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year STF term could fall to about 16 years if the changes pass, and his allies say progression could allow release in roughly two years and eight months.
• Internal resistance persists as parts of the PL caucus object to removing aggravators, while Eduardo Bolsonaro calls publicly for a broad amnesty, saying it will be “vitória ou vingança.”
• Paulinho is pursuing buy-in from Chamber President Hugo Motta and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, as figures like Senator Jaques Wagner argue heavier penalties should target alleged masterminds.