Brazil’s December IPCA-15 Stays Within Target as Airfare Surge Lifts Prices

Overview

• IBGE’s IPCA-15 rose 0.25% in December, taking the 12‑month rate to 4.41%, within the central bank’s 4.5% tolerance band.
• Transport led the monthly increase, with airfares up 12.71% and providing the largest individual impact, while app-based rides rose 9% and fuels advanced 0.26%.
• Food at home dipped 0.08% in December and ended 2025 up 1.94%, the second-smallest annual rise since 2018, with tomatoes, long-life milk and rice cheaper.
• Salvador posted 0.42% for the month, the second-highest city result, as local airfares jumped 26.53% following ANAC’s approved 19% increase in embarkation fees now in effect.
• Services remain the pressure point, with labor‑sensitive services accelerating on a three‑month annualized basis to 7.4%, and analysts warn 2026 could face climate, harvest and exchange‑rate headwinds.