Overview

• Official projections now point to 2.0% GDP growth in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, reflecting restrictive policy, low slack, softer global activity and the expected fade of 2025’s agricultural boost.
• The BC forecasts IPCA at 4.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, estimates a 71% chance of topping the 2025 upper tolerance, and expects inflation to stay above the 3% center through at least early 2028.
• September’s IPCA‑15 rose 0.48% on a surge in residential electricity after the Itaipu bonus ended and the red tariff flag returned, taking 12‑month inflation to 5.32% though the reading came in below forecasts.
• Policymakers signal a restrictive stance for longer, with communication pointing to holding the Selic at 15% to drive convergence as services inflation remains sticky and administered prices pose risks.
• The RPM lifts the 2025 nominal credit growth projection to 8.8% but highlights a broad deceleration in credit expansion across segments except for directed corporate lending.