Overview
- The benchmark rate stands at 15%, the highest since July 2006, with broad market consensus pointing to another hold today.
- Economists widely foresee the first rate cuts only from January to the first quarter of 2026, reflecting caution despite recent disinflation signals.
- The central bank maintains a vigilant posture and has previously signaled it could adjust policy if needed, as investors watch whether language about potential renewed hikes is softened.
- Market inflation projections remain above the 3% target at 4.55% for 2025, 4.20% for 2026, 3.8% for 2027 and 3.5% for 2028.
- Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad have urged lower rates, while analysts warn that expanded social programs and a higher income tax exemption could add a fiscal impulse near 1% of GDP next year.