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Brazil’s Central Bank Keeps Selic at 15%, Signals Long Hold to Tame Inflation

Policymakers say the current rate is sufficient to secure convergence to the 3% target if maintained for a prolonged period.

Overview

  • Copom voted unanimously to hold for a third straight meeting, keeping the benchmark at its highest level since 2006.
  • The bank trimmed its official forecasts to 4.6% inflation at end-2025 and 3.3% in its reference horizon through the second quarter of 2027.
  • The statement flags elevated external uncertainty linked to U.S. policy and tariffs, persistent services pressures, and a still‑robust labor market.
  • Government figures, including President Lula, Finance Minister Haddad and Vice President Alckmin, pressed for cuts, with Alckmin saying he expects easing at the December meeting.
  • Market pricing and analyst commentary mostly point to the first rate reductions only in early 2026, with many calling for a start in March.