Overview
- The Copom voted 9–0 to keep the benchmark at 15%, the highest since 2006, and set its next meeting for December 9–10.
- Official projections were trimmed to 4.6% for end‑2025 inflation and 3.3% by the second quarter of 2027, with 2026 at 3.6%.
- The communiqué cited elevated risks from U.S. policy and tariffs, domestic fiscal developments, a resilient labor market, and still‑unanchored expectations.
- Market economists largely see the first rate cuts only in early 2026, with many pointing to March rather than December or January.
- Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad pressed for reductions, yet the Lula‑appointed majority backed the hold as industry, construction and unions decried the cost of credit and Brazil’s near‑top global real rate ranking.