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2h ago

Brazil’s Central Bank Holds Selic at 15% and Says Prolonged Level Should Tame Inflation

Markets now price the first cuts for early 2026 following guidance that the current stance should meet the inflation target.

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Haddad e o presidente do BC, Gabriel Galípolo. Copom manteve taxa de juros em 15% ao ano.
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Overview

  • The Copom voted unanimously to keep the benchmark Selic at 15%, the highest since 2006, and said holding this restrictive level for a “bastante prolongado” period is sufficient for disinflation.
  • Official projections were trimmed to 3.3% inflation at the policy horizon in Q2 2027 and 4.6% for end‑2025, while the 12‑month IPCA remains near 5.17%, above the target band.
  • Investors read the communiqué as slightly less hawkish: short‑term DI rates eased, the real appreciated, and the Ibovespa set fresh records near 154,000 points.
  • Economists now mostly expect the easing cycle to start in early 2026, commonly between January and March, with many pointing to March, and another hold is anticipated in December.
  • The bank cited U.S. policy uncertainty and a still‑resilient labor market for its caution as government figures, including President Lula and Finance Minister Haddad, continued to press for earlier cuts; the next Copom meets on December 9–10.