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Brazil’s Central Bank Holds Selic at 15% Again, Signals Prolonged High Rates

Sticky services prices plus shaky external conditions keep the focus on hitting the inflation target.

Overview

  • The Copom voted 9–0 to keep the benchmark rate at 15%, the third straight hold and the highest level since 2006.
  • Policymakers said maintaining the current stance for a “quite prolonged period” is sufficient for convergence to the 3% target, while remaining ready to adjust if needed.
  • Official projections were trimmed to 4.6% inflation at end‑2025 and 3.3% at the policy horizon through the second quarter of 2027.
  • The statement flagged persistent risks from resilient labor‑linked services inflation, fiscal developments and U.S. policy uncertainty, including trade measures.
  • Government leaders pressed for cuts and industry groups warned of tighter credit and weaker investment, yet market consensus now expects easing to start in early 2026; the next meeting is set for December 9–10.