Overview

• The Banco Central’s Q3 policy report cites higher U.S. import tariffs and signs of moderating activity in the second half of 2025 as key drags on growth.
• Monetary policy stays restrictive with the Selic at 15%, and the 2025 IPCA forecast slips to 4.8% with inflation still seen above the target through year-end.
• Sector views diverge for 2025 as agriculture is upgraded to 9.0% growth, industry is cut to 1.0%, and services remain at 1.8%.
• Household consumption growth for 2025 is revised down to 1.8% from 2.1%, even as the labor market shows resilience with 5.6% unemployment and record employment.
• The first 2026 GDP projection of 1.5% reflects the loss of 2025’s farm boost, limited slack and a weaker global backdrop, which would mark the slowest pace since 2020 if confirmed.