Overview

• The quarterly policy report trims 2025 growth to 2.0% and debuts a 2026 projection of 1.5%, citing higher U.S. import tariffs and signs of domestic activity moderation.
• The Banco Central assigns a 71% probability that 2025 IPCA exceeds the tolerance ceiling and projects inflation above the 3% target through at least the first quarter of 2028.
• September’s IPCA-15 rose 0.48%, driven by electricity costs after the Itaipu bonus ended and the red tariff flag level 2 took effect, while food prices fell.
• Copom signals that the policy rate will stay at 15% for a prolonged period, with a tight labor market and a positive output gap reinforcing persistent price pressures.
• Interest-rate futures eased only slightly after a benign core inflation mix, with the move limited by the central bank’s hawkish tone and stronger U.S. data.