Overview
- Lula da Silva and senator Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched their campaigns on Sunday, Aug. 16, starting the official 45‑day period ahead of the Oct. 4 presidential vote.
- A Quaest poll published Aug. 14 shows a technical tie in a hypothetical runoff with Lula at 43% and Flávio at 40%, a gap within the survey’s ±2‑point margin of error and with roughly 4% of voters still undecided.
- Both campaigns are centering security as their main message: Lula vows to target criminal finances and protect social programs while Flávio promises a hard‑line approach that would treat major gangs as terrorists and lower the age of criminal responsibility.
- Diplomatic tensions with the United States have become an active campaign issue after U.S. measures on tariffs, ambassador recognition and attempts to review Brazil’s voting system prompted the Lula government to accuse Washington of electoral interference.
- Flávio remains under media and judicial scrutiny over past contacts with banker Daniel Vorcaro while Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and ineligibility have handed bolsonarismo leadership to his son, leaving other right‑wing candidates polling below 5% and concentrating the contest on the two frontrunners.