Brazil’s 2027 Budget Shows Tiny Surplus Based on Optimistic Revenue Bets

Overview

• The government sent its 2027 budget to Congress this week projecting total receipts of R$3.41 trillion, spending of R$2.67 trillion, a headline surplus of R$18.6 billion and a reported surplus of R$83.4 billion after accounting deductions.
• The plan uses a government GDP growth forecast of about 2.46–2.5%, well above private forecasts near 1.5–1.6%, a gap that would boost projected tax revenue if growth does not slow.
• The budget counts R$677.9 billion from two new consumption levies, the CBS and an Imposto Seletivo, even though their rates have not been set and the Tribunal de Contas da União was assigned to define how those numbers are estimated.
• Officials also include roughly R$20 billion from oil-lease auctions despite failed auctions in 2025–2026, and the fiscal arcabouço allows accounting abatements that can make headline surpluses look stronger than underlying primary results.
• Analysts warn the effective surplus of about 0.13% of GDP is far below the roughly 2.2% of GDP many say is needed to stop rising debt, which the PLOA projects at about 86% of GDP in 2027, and they flag major execution risk from congressional amendments and spending shifts.