Brazil’s 2026 Senate Battle Tightens With Right Ahead as Governors Signal Bids

Overview

• Fifty-four of the 81 Senate seats will be contested in October 2026, with two seats up in each state and the Federal District.
• A Poder360 readout of Real Time Big Data polls conducted from late November to late December shows the right with roughly double the chance of the left to win seats, with governist names leading in 11 races, opposition in 21, and 22 still unsettled.
• Polling indicates government-aligned strength in the Northeast, opposition advantages in the Center-West and South, and mixed prospects in the North, where Pará and Amapá currently favor pro-government figures.
• Twelve of the 18 governors barred from seeking another term have signaled Senate bids, with confirmations from Fátima Bezerra, João Azevêdo, and Helder Barbalho, while others weigh entries and must resign by April to run.
• Analysts cite eight-year special jurisdiction and the Senate’s growing institutional influence as draws, as the opposition seeks votes to pursue impeachments of Supreme Court ministers, notably Alexandre de Moraes, and calculations show 41 seats are needed for a majority with differing paths for each side.