Overview
- Lula confirms a re-election bid for his seventh presidential campaign, with state-level alliances seen as a priority for early 2026.
- Flávio Bolsonaro posts an early start on the right, benefiting from the Bolsonaro name but facing questions about durability and past controversies.
- Political interlocutors continue to float São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas as a potential substitute if Flávio loses traction, a move that would require him to leave office by April.
- Real-economy indicators have improved, yet concerns over fiscal rules and the timing of interest-rate cuts remain a vulnerability for the government.
- STF president Edson Fachin proposes a judiciary-wide code of ethics that includes the Supreme Court, a move likely to face resistance within the courts.