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3d ago

Brazil’s 2026 Race Hardens as Polls Favor Right and Institutional Scrutiny Deepens

New polling alongside scrutiny of judicial ethics plus questions over Central Bank independence are shaping the campaign’s early terrain.

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Overview

  • Both the PT-aligned left and the right are moving to recreate the extreme polarization of 2022 as they position for 2026.
  • A fresh Datafolha snapshot reports 35% of Brazilians now identify with the right versus 22% with the left.
  • Scrutiny has intensified over a high-value contract tied to Justice Alexandre de Moraes’s wife and over reported pressure on Central Bank chief Gabriel Galípolo related to Banco Master’s planned sale to BRB.
  • Support for a Supreme Court code of conduct now includes multiple former court presidents as well as current justices Edson Fachin and Cármen Lúcia, while some prominent members remain silent.
  • The right remains anchored to the Bolsonaro brand with family strains surfacing and Flávio Bolsonaro courting influencers like Pablo Marçal, as analysts warn that pre-election spending and rising debt are already limiting room for interest-rate cuts.