Overview
- Only three figures have formally moved: Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado launched pre-campaigns in 2024, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced in early December that he will run.
- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has not confirmed a reelection bid and says he will decide in March.
- São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas remains a potential contender on the right and plans to decide in March after signaling loyalty to Bolsonaro and emphasizing a focus on state reelection.
- Public security is set to dominate, with governors pushing state autonomy and opposing the Planalto’s security PEC to integrate forces, while some also advocate lowering the age of criminal responsibility.
- Economic debate is shaping up as spending caps versus Lula’s fiscal framework, with several governors backing spending cuts and privatizations, and the TSE requires officeholders to resign by April 6 for the October 4 vote.