Brazil’s 2025 GDP Expands 2.3% as Late‑Year Momentum Fades and Agriculture Leads

Overview

• IBGE reports fifth consecutive annual expansion with GDP up 2.3% in 2025 and near‑stagnant output in Q4 (+0.1% quarter on quarter, +1.8% year on year).
• Growth was concentrated in agriculture (+11.7%) and extractive activities, while services rose 1.8% and overall industry advanced 1.4%.
• On the demand side, household consumption increased 1.3% and investment 2.9% in 2025, but Q4 saw investment fall 3.1% and household spending hold flat.
• The Finance Ministry’s economic secretariat says restrictive monetary policy curbed activity; it keeps a 2026 GDP forecast of 2.3% versus the market’s roughly 1.82%, with the central bank signaling possible March cuts from a 15% Selic.
• The ministry ranks Brazil sixth for 2025 growth among G20 economies, as industry groups warn that high borrowing costs are constraining construction and manufacturing.