Brazil’s 2024 Emissions Fell 17% as Deforestation Slowed, SEEG Reports

Overview

• SEEG’s latest assessment puts 2024 emissions at 2.15 GtCO2e, down from about 2.57 GtCO2e in 2023, driven chiefly by a roughly 33% drop in gross land‑use change emissions to 906 MtCO2e.
• Wildfires in 2024 released an estimated 441 MtCO2 that Brazil’s official inventory does not include, raising concerns about the gap between reported progress and atmospheric reality.
• Energy-sector emissions rose 0.8% to 424 MtCO2e, with CO2 from electricity generation up 17% as fossil plants picked up more load.
• Agriculture fell 0.7% to 626 MtCO2e, aided by a slightly smaller cattle herd and more confinement, while industrial processes and waste increased 2.8% and 3.6%, respectively.
• SEEG projects 2025 net emissions near 1.44 GtCO2e versus the 1.32 GtCO2e NDC cap, signaling a likely shortfall even as Brazil seeks a diplomatic boost before COP30 and moves to expand oil exploration on the Amazon margin.