Overview

• After a one‑day rebound to R$5.33, the dollar still sits below earlier levels as the real holds a gain of more than 14% in 2025.
• Retailers in Fortaleza report cheaper imported smartphones, with pharmacies and fuel also seeing relief as currency strength trims costs tied to imports.
• Exporters and agribusiness in Brazil’s Northeast face reduced reais revenue per dollar, underscoring the uneven effects of a stronger exchange rate.
• Shifting expectations for U.S. policy, global financial strains, Brazil’s fiscal credibility, and the interest‑rate differential are cited as the main drivers of recent currency moves.
• With Selic around 15%, investors note opportunities for small allocations to international ETFs or U.S. REITs while domestic fixed income remains attractive, though reversal risks persist.