Overview

• After closing at R$5.3107 on Oct. 6, the dollar ticked up to roughly R$5.345 early Oct. 7 as global fiscal worries supported the greenback.
• Dealers said a cordial phone call between Presidents Lula and Trump eased bilateral risk perceptions and added support for the real.
• Brazilian interest-rate futures slipped: DI Jan-2027 fell to 14.105%, Jan-2029 to 13.37%, and Jan-2031 to 13.565%.
• The Ibovespa dropped 0.41% on Oct. 6, pressured by banks and Petrobras, while gains in Vale helped cushion the index.
• Major houses cut year-end dollar forecasts—Bradesco to R$5.25 and HSBC, Goldman Sachs and Société Générale in the R$5.20–R$5.40 range—while UBS models suggest scope toward R$4.90, with analysts flagging fiscal and seasonal flow risks.