Overview

• Brazil’s commercial dollar was quoted near R$5.31 late on Oct. 6, staying within last week’s narrow R$5.30–R$5.36 range.
• Several institutions now see the dollar at roughly R$5.20–R$5.40 by year‑end, with Bradesco trimming its call to R$5.25.
• Bradesco chief economist Fernando Honorato Barbosa expects the dollar to be closer to R$5 than R$5.50 over the next six to nine months.
• Strategists attribute the real’s resilience to a weaker greenback globally and attractive carry supported by a cautious central bank, with the dollar down about 13.5% against the real this year.
• Analysts warn that fiscal strains, political developments heading into the 2026 cycle, and year‑end remittances could limit or reverse recent currency gains.