Overview

• New PoderData polling from Sept. 27–29 finds 64% oppose an amnesty for those convicted over the Jan. 8, 2023 events, up from 51% in March, with 27% in favor.
• Majorities in both camps reject the measure, with 74% of Lula voters and 55% of Bolsonaro voters opposing an amnesty.
• The Chamber of Deputies approved urgency on Sept. 17 for PL 2,162/2023, naming Paulinho da Força as rapporteur, who has not yet presented a final text and has dubbed his approach the 'PL da Dosimetria.'
• Poder360’s analysis indicates the plan, as discussed, could cut Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence to about 1 year and 7 months of house arrest, though he would remain ineligible for 2026.
• STF minister Luís Roberto Barroso warned on Sept. 29 that an amnesty could make history repeat itself, after large anti-amnesty protests on Sept. 21 and ahead of an opposition march set for Oct. 7.