Overview

• Wall Street set fresh records this week and futures point higher again as weak ADP data and a data gap from the U.S. shutdown reinforce expectations for more Fed rate cuts.
• Ibovespa fell 1.08% on Thursday to 143,950 as investors reacted to talk of nationwide zero bus fares, with the dollar near R$5.34 and real-yield NTN‑B rates and DI futures moving higher.
• The Chamber approved an income‑tax exemption for salaries up to R$5,000 and sent the bill to the Senate, with investors questioning fiscal neutrality despite proposed offsets.
• Brazil’s Selic remains at 15% and central bank officials maintain a hawkish tone; DI contracts rose again Friday after August industrial production beat forecasts, adding pressure to the short end.
• Foreign inflows stayed positive in September and year to date, helping drive a strong 2025 rally and multiple Ibovespa records even as domestic fiscal risks revive short‑term volatility.