Overview

• Copom minutes kept the Selic at 15% and said a significantly restrictive stance may be needed for a “quite prolonged” period, with readiness to adjust or even raise rates if risks resurface.
• The bimestral report lifted the central government’s 2025 primary deficit projection to R$30.2 billion (0.24% of GDP) and increased the discretionary spending block to R$12.1 billion.
• The Central Bank flagged elevated uncertainty and said it is tracking potential US tariffs on Brazilian goods and domestic fiscal moves, reinforcing a cautious policy approach.
• The government raised its 2025 dividend forecast by R$6.9 billion to R$48.8 billion, and Dario Durigan said state-company payouts could be used if needed to meet fiscal goals.
• Futures rates climbed as risk premia rose, with the DI Jan-2027 at 14.050%, while Durigan linked a R$2.4 billion downgrade in tax receipts to restrictive policy and Minister Fernando Haddad argued 15% is unjustified given projected disinflation.