Brazilian Banks Raise Credit Forecasts, Expect Gradual Slowdown in 2026

Directed lending to companies, especially MPMEs, is seen as the engine sustaining overall growth.

Overview

Banks now project total credit growth of 9.2% for 2025 and 8.2% for 2026, according to Febraban’s December survey.
Most respondents (73.7%) anticipate a moderation in 2026 that unfolds gradually rather than as a sharp deceleration.
Expectations for directed credit strengthened, with the 2025 outlook rising to 10.9% on stronger corporate lending supported by public programs.
About 70% of banks expect the Central Bank to begin cutting the Selic in March, with the rate seen falling from 15% to around 13% by August.
Banks foresee a slight deterioration in credit quality, with delinquency edging up from 5.1% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2026, and 80% say additional fiscal measures will be needed to meet the fiscal framework’s target.