Brazilian Banks Lift 2025–26 Credit Growth Outlook in Febraban Survey

Public-led directed lending is the driver of the upgraded projections.

Overview

Total credit growth is now seen at 9.2% in 2025 and 8.2% in 2026, up from 8.9% and 7.9% in the prior survey.
Expectations for directed credit strengthened, with 2025 growth raised to 10.9% and 2026 to 9.4%, led by programs for companies and MPMEs.
A gradual deceleration in 2026 is the base case for 73.7% of respondents, reflecting labor-market resilience and public support measures.
Most banks expect the first Selic cut in March, with the policy rate easing from 15% to about 13% by August.
Banks project a slight rise in delinquency to 5.2% in 2026 and roughly 80% say extra fiscal measures will be needed to hit the primary target.