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2d ago

Brazil Year-End Outlook: Inflation Eases as Selic Stays High and Industry Confidence Rebounds

Fresh market surveys signal cooling prices and bolster policy credibility despite historically low factory capacity use.

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IPCA-15 em 0,25%: inflação mantém meta do Executivo pelo segundo mês

Overview

  • Boletim Focus lowers 2025 IPCA to 4.32% and 2026 to 4.05%, with GDP at 2.26% in 2025 and 1.80% in 2026.
  • Copom holds the Selic at 15%, and market medians point to 12.25% by end-2026.
  • FGV’s Industry Confidence Index rises 3.8 points in December to 92.9, while capacity utilization slips to 79.6%, the weakest since April 2021.
  • Abecip’s IGMI-R shows residential prices up 17.14% over 12 months to November, with monthly gains slowing to 1.15% from 2.52% in October.
  • FGV’s IGP‑M ends 2025 with 1.05% deflation, and analysts note many rent contracts now index to IPCA as the current‑account gap widens to US$74.85 billion with financing expected from FDI.