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Overview
- Thursday's reports that Flávio Bolsonaro, his wife and daughters flew in January 2025 on a jet tied to banker Daniel Vorcaro have forced both campaigns to reframe messaging and will be explicitly tested by pollsters this weekend.
- Polling remains extremely close with Quaest showing a narrow, within‑margin gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and a new Quaest fieldwork round underway to measure the impact of the Vorcaro disclosure.
- President Lula has intensified in‑person campaigning in key battlegrounds such as São Gonçalo and Bahia and is running a national mobilization to hold a slim lead in the last days before voting.
- Lula has also made high‑visibility policy promises to curb online gambling and to introduce measures on credit protections, using those announcements to sharpen an anti‑corruption and consumer‑protection narrative.
- Beyond the immediate campaign effects, editorial investigations and judicial moves have heightened institutional tensions and international parallels with the U.S. Justice Department's intensified election‑related prosecutions, which together raise legal and narrative stakes for voters.