Overview
- Millions of Brazilians are voting on Sunday, October 25, 2026, in a runoff that calls 158.7 million electors to the polls and is polling as an almost even race within the margin of error.
- A late Futura poll gave Flávio Bolsonaro 50.1% and Lula 49.9% with a 2.2 point margin of error, underlining how tiny shifts by undecided voters could decide the result.
- A televised debate exchange in which Flávio repeatedly used the slur 'nove dita' and then apologized has produced a rapid online backlash that both campaigns say could sway swing and previously absent voters.
- More than 33 million people who did not vote in the first round represent a decisive block and both campaigns have spent the final days trying to mobilize those abstainers and voters from eliminated candidates.
- Beyond the immediate result, the vote has big consequences because the Brazilian president holds concentrated powers, the Bolsonaro movement is shadowed by Jair Bolsonaro’s 2025 conviction, and the next government will influence Amazon policy, security measures, and relations with the United States and China.