Overview
- Voting took place across Brazil on Oct. 4 with 12 candidates on the ballot and the contest effectively narrowed to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Published Datafolha polling before the vote showed a tight first-round race with Lula at about 42% and Flávio at about 38% and a projected runoff split near 48% to 45% in Lula's favor.
- If no candidate wins an absolute majority the top two will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25, a likely outcome given the close polling and fragmented field.
- The campaign has been dominated by scandal-driven attacks and family controversies rather than detailed policy debate, shifting attention away from substantive proposals.
- Economic pressures — persistent inflation, high interest rates and growing household debt — are the central voter concern and could determine which candidate can persuade swing and former Lula supporters to change their vote.