Overview
- Multiple polls in the last week show a very close contest with Datafolha putting Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in the first round and a 47%–45% technical tie in a likely runoff.
- President Lula this week pushed last-minute measures to win wavering voters, including a provisional ban on online sports betting, a 15% increase to Bolsa Família and a debt-renegotiation program.
- Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap by stressing inflation and security, but his campaign faces fresh pressure from ongoing 'caso Master' revelations about links to banker Daniel Vorcaro that he denies.
- The race is shaped by clear regional and demographic splits: Lula leads strongly in the Northeast and among lower-income voters while Flávio leads in key Southeast states and among many evangelical and male voters.
- High rejection rates for both front-runners, different second-round projections from Quaest, Datafolha and Atlas/Bloomberg, and intensified ground mobilization make turnout, last-minute transfers and any new leaks decisive for the outcome.