Overview
- Datafolha and other polls released this week show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro separated by only a few points, making a second round on Oct. 25 the expected outcome.
- The planned final televised debate was cancelled after both frontrunners declined to appear, with TV Globo citing conflicting electoral and Supreme Court rulings that created legal uncertainty for the broadcast.
- A backpack bomb scare outside the Supreme Federal Court led to an arrest and an inspection that found only personal items, and the incident has intensified concerns about security and political tensions ahead of voting.
- Ongoing probes stemming from the Banco Master/Daniel Vorcaro case have linked campaign financing to Bolsonaro allies, including payments tied to the ‘Dark Horse’ biopic, and investigations remain active going into the vote.
- Voters are weighing everyday issues such as crime, household debt and inflation against high‑stakes choices over Amazon protections and foreign alignment, outcomes that markets and international partners are watching closely.