Overview

• The Central Bank is preparing a resolution and an extraordinary CMN meeting is expected this week to allow a 5‑point cut in the poupança compulsory reserve for participating banks, with trials running through 2026 and full rollout in 2027.
• The test phase could inject at least R$20 billion into credit markets this year, potentially reaching R$37.5 billion depending on bank uptake, with Caixa expected to play a leading role.
• Freed resources would be reallocated with 80% directed to the SFH under a 12% annual interest cap and 20% to the SFI, while the SFH loan limit would rise from about R$1.5 million to roughly R$2 million.
• A companion home‑renovation program will offer three income‑based credit bands with subsidized rates, with lines expected to be available at Caixa by the end of October.
• Fiscal backing remains uncertain as MP 1,303 faces votes in both chambers today after a narrow 13–12 committee approval that preserved LCI/LCA exemptions and dropped a proposed tax hike on betting, reducing expected revenue.