Overview

• The Planning Ministry’s 4th‑bimester report raised the discretionary spending bloqueio to R$12.1 billion, up from R$10.7 billion.
• The primary deficit forecast for 2025 climbed to R$30.2 billion (0.24% of GDP), which stays within the arcabouço tolerance band and avoids contingenciamento.
• Copom minutes kept the Selic at 15% and cautioned that a significantly restrictive stance may be required for a ‘bastante prolongado’ period, leaving the door open to further adjustments.
• The report cut Receita Federal–administered revenue by R$12 billion and trimmed net revenue by R$1.9 billion, which officials linked to a cooling economy under high interest rates.
• The government is counting on Congress to pass MP 1.303 before it expires and on larger state‑owned dividends (now projected at R$48.8 billion), while a PLP to trim tax benefits worth about R$19.8 billion faces skepticism.