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Brazil Surveys: Construction Confidence Edges Up, Industry Outlook Worsens

Manufacturing expectations fell to their weakest level since 2020, signaling fragile momentum despite a flat headline confidence reading.

Overview

  • FGV Ibre’s Industrial Confidence Index rose 0.1 point in September to 90.5, with the current-situation gauge up 1.6 to 95.0 and the expectations index down 1.5 to 86.1, the lowest since June 2020.
  • In the three-month moving average, industrial confidence fell 2.1 points to 91.9, with gains recorded in 9 of 19 segments tracked by the survey.
  • FGV economist Stéfano Pacini reported widespread pessimism across use categories and inventory levels above the desirable range, limiting prospects for near-term activity.
  • The Construction Confidence Index increased 0.7 point to 92.3 after two monthly declines, driven by expectations, while the current-situation measure held at 91.9, its lowest since February 2022.
  • Construction capacity use rose 0.6 percentage point to 78.8% as labor and machinery utilization increased, while industry capacity use was stable at 82.6%.