Overview

• President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports from August 1, linking the measure to Brazil’s prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
• Brazil’s May counterproposal on trade went unanswered and no high-level talks have occurred since, leaving the country with limited negotiation options.
• Orange prices in Brazil have plunged to roughly 44 reais ($8) per box, prompting some Minas Gerais farmers to scale back or abandon their harvests.
• Johanna Foods filed suit this week challenging the tariff’s legal authority, warning of a $70 million business loss, potential layoffs and a 25% increase in U.S. orange juice prices.
• President Lula has vowed retaliatory duties under Brazil’s Economic Reciprocity Law while industry groups project over 100,000 job losses and a 0.2% hit to GDP if the tariffs take effect.