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Brazil Stocks Slip as Fiscal Jitters Lift Yields, Dollar Closes Near R$5.33

Global tailwinds from a softer dollar and easier Fed expectations were outweighed by concern over an income‑tax exemption vote and a persistently hawkish central bank.

Overview

  • Ibovespa fell 0.49% to 145,517 after recent record highs, with Petrobras pressured by weaker oil and domestically sensitive shares weighed by higher local rates.
  • Brazilian futures rates edged up despite falling U.S. Treasury yields, with DI Jan‑2027 at 14.05%, Jan‑2029 at 13.255% and Jan‑2031 at 13.44% as fiscal risk stayed in focus.
  • The dollar ended at R$5.3285–5.329, up 0.11%, after an early slide below R$5.30 tied to the U.S. government shutdown and ADP’s report of a 32,000 private‑sector job loss in September.
  • Wall Street and major European indexes closed higher with fresh records, led by health care, as rate‑cut bets strengthened and the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield slipped to about 4.10%.
  • Despite the pullback, Brazilian equities remain sharply higher year to date in dollar terms (up 41.1% through September) even as the Selic holds at 15% and investors gauge 2026 rate‑cut prospects.