Overview

• The Ibovespa inched up about 0.2% to 146,516 late morning after ADP reported a 32,000 drop in U.S. private payrolls and a partial U.S. government shutdown complicated risk sentiment.
• The benchmark has gained 21.58% in reais this year through September and 41.1% in dollars, outpacing local fixed income despite Brazil’s Selic rate holding at 15% since June.
• Analysts cite a weaker dollar and the start of U.S. rate cuts in mid‑September as key supports, with further easing expected to keep steering global portfolios toward emerging markets.
• Foreign flows to B3 turned positive by September 26 with a R$4.8 billion net balance and R$26 billion year to date, while local institutions show a R$40.5 billion deficit as high-yield public debt remains favored.
• Stock moves today included Petrobras fluctuating with softer oil, Braskem up about 5.5% after Cade cleared a potential Tanure-related share purchase, and Minerva higher after BTG added it to a small-caps list, as analysts also point to low equity valuation multiples and outsized year-to-date winners such as Cogna, C&A, and Cury.