Overview

• Ibovespa fell 0.49% on Oct. 1 to 145,517 after a run of record highs, though the index remains up about 21.6% in reais and roughly 41% in dollars year to date.
• Interest‑rate futures edged higher despite falling U.S. Treasury yields, with traders citing the income‑tax exemption vote, firmer polling for President Lula, and a hawkish Central Bank stance keeping Selic at 15%.
• The dollar closed at R$5.329 on Oct. 1, up 0.11%, before easing near R$5.31 on Oct. 2 as the real outperformed peers in early trading on a quiet data day.
• Weaker U.S. labor signals from ADP’s 32,000 job loss and a federal government shutdown reinforced expectations for further Fed cuts, supporting EM risk even as Brazilian fixed income decoupled.
• Foreign inflows into B3 remain positive at roughly R$26 billion through Sept. 26, sustaining the broader rally even as investors take profits and watch for fiscal offsets to the IR change.