Overview

• Brazil’s Focus survey trimmed the 2025 IPCA outlook to 4.81% and kept Selic projections at 15% for year‑end 2025 and 12.25% for end‑2026.
• Central bank president Gabriel Galípolo said bringing inflation to the 3% target will take “much effort,” stressing vigilance as no major projections show the target reached in 2026.
• BC’s new Firmus survey shows nonfinancial companies expect GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026, complementing market-based gauges the bank uses for decisions.
• Director Diogo Guillen said recent activity cooling indicates policy is working but services prices and unanchored expectations keep inflation pressures elevated.
• Short-term rates in Brazil rose after August jobs data, while in Argentina several banks tightened or paused mortgages, with some offers near 15% above inflation and a reported US$20 billion U.S. backstop pledged to steady markets.