Brazil Sees Record First‑Round Abstention, Complicating Bolsonaro‑Lula Runoff

Overview

• The first round on Oct. 4 recorded a 21.08% abstention rate with 33.4 million registered voters not casting ballots, the highest first‑round absence since 1998 according to TSE data reported across multiple outlets.
• Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45.16% in the first round, producing a runoff on Oct. 25 that now hinges on which campaign can mobilize abstainers and voters of eliminated candidates.
• Abstention varied sharply by place, with São Paulo state at 22.5%, the Vale do Paraíba at 20.7% (465,605 absent) and several Serra do Rio municipalities around 22–24%, showing local conditions drove turnout differences.
• Reporters and analysts cite long voting lines, voter fatigue and mobility limits for older citizens as key causes, and millions more cast blank (2.3 million) or null (3.6 million) presidential ballots that also alter the electoral math.
• Most analysts expect a modest fall in abstention for the second round based on 2022 patterns; non‑voters can regularize their situation to vote in the runoff and campaigns have already launched targeted appeals, including a direct plea from Lula.