Overview
- Datafolha’s mid‑October survey found a technical tie on valid votes with Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 49%, and recorded 47%–45% in raw intentions across 2,520 interviews with a ±2 point margin of error.
- Lula’s team has shifted strategy to target the more than 33 million people who abstained or cast blank/null ballots in the Oct. 4 first round and has registered measurable gains with that group.
- Polls show sharp regional and demographic splits: Bolsonaro leads in the south and southeast and among men and evangelicals, while Lula dominates the northeast and among lower‑income voters, women and Catholics.
- Markets reversed some post‑first‑round gains this week as investors recalculated probabilities, and the campaign spotlighted recent policy moves such as the Senate’s vote to cut the statutory workweek from 44 to 40 hours and new social measures.
- The race stays uncertain with high rejection rates for both candidates and a televised debate on Band before the Oct. 25 runoff that could swing turnout and undecided voters.