Overview
- A Datafolha survey of 2,520 voters conducted Oct. 20–22 and released Friday showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 50% of valid votes with a two-point margin of error.
- An independent Quaest poll this week produced a similarly tight result, giving Bolsonaro 45% and Lula 44% and placing the difference within normal polling uncertainty.
- The last televised debate is scheduled for Friday at 21:20, moderated by César Tralli and carried by O Globo with streams on g1 and Globoplay, as both campaigns make final appeals to undecided voters.
- The two nominees offer sharply different agendas: Lula emphasizes expanded social programs, public investment and environmental targets, while Flávio Bolsonaro proposes deep spending cuts, hardline security measures including labeling criminal groups 'narcoterrorists', lowering the age of criminal responsibility and defending pardons tied to his family.
- Bolsonaro led the Oct. 4 first round with 47.03% versus Lula’s 45.16%, and because first-round leaders have typically won runoffs small changes in undecided votes or turnout could reshape policy on poverty relief, safety and forest protection.